Reviewing my over/under predictions for the 2024-25 NBA season

Thankfully, the NBA regular season has ended. Others have pointed out that “angst” would be a good word to describe the season. There were some great storylines in OKC, Cleveland and Detroit, along with Golden State’s late season rejuvenation after picking up Jimmy Playoff Butler. However, much of the season revolved around injuries to key players, trades of star players and coaching turmoil. The Spurs were involved in each of those three categories with the season-ending injury to Victor Wembanyama, the trade for D’Aaron Fox (who then also voluntarily fell into category one with his finger surgery), and Gregg Popovich’s stroke in November.

I had another source of angst: my preseason over/under predictions for each Western Conference team. This is something I do every year, even though it is something I am clearly not very good at. Indeed, my editor added the following sub-headline to my 2024-25 predictions:

“This did not go well last season, so let’s try it again!”

They say it takes a strong man to admit his mistakes. I am getting stronger each year. Let’s look back to my 2024-2025 season prediction and see how I did. As with my October 21, 2024 predictions, I will start with the team with the highest win prediction and go down from there.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Predicted Win Total: 56.5

Actual Win Total: 68.

My Prediction: OVER.

Hey, let’s start with a win! My prediction included this positive language: “I understand the optimism about OKC, as the Thunder has basically everyone back from last year’s excellent young team other than Josh Giddy, and they added premier defender Alex Caruso and versatile big man Isaiah Hartenstein.” Let’s ignore the fact that I also used the words “just barely” on my OVER prediction. OKC exceeded the Vegas prediction by 11.5 games Take the win, Lee!

Minnesota Timberwolves

Predicted Win Total: 52.5

Actual Win Total: 49

My Prediction: OVER.

Looking back, I am surprised to see that Vegas predicted the T’Wolves to have the second best record in the West. Even more surprising is that I took the OVER, incorrectly suggesting that trading away Karl-Anthony Towns would be an upgrade. In totally related news, KAT will likely be Second Team All-NBA (though he would probably be Third Team if Victor had played the 65-game minimum).

Denver Nuggets

Predicted Win Total: 51.5

Actual Win Total: 50

My Prediction: UNDER.

Another win, but just barely. I commented about the Nuggets’ loss of valuable role players and asked if they were wasting Jokic’s prime years before he decides to move back to Serbia to ride his horses. Truth be told, the Nuggets’ UNDER can be best explained by extended injuries to Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, as Jokic had a season for the ages.

Dallas Mavericks

Predicted Win Total: 49.5

Actual Win Total: 39

My Prediction: UNDER.

Another win, but nowhere in my discussion of the Mavs’ upcoming season did I predict that they would decide to trade 25-year-old Luka Doncic to the Lakes for 31-year-old Anthony Davis and Doug Christie’s son. If I had predicted that trade (no one else did either), I would have certainly predicted that AD would get injured shortly after the trade, and I would have been right. I would have also been correct in predicting that trading Luka would make Mavs’ fans the saddest in the league. I hope they at least enjoy their one-and-done in the Play-In Tourney.

Phoenix Suns

Predicted Win Total: 47.5

Actual Win Total: 36

My Prediction: OVER.

I was so wrong on this one. I said: “As for the Suns, picking up a true point guard in Tyus Jones will be very helpful. The Suns won 49 last season despite a bunch of injuries. This is a bet that Kevin Durant will stay relatively healthy. OVER.” KD in fact stayed relatively healthy until the end of the season and averaged 26.6 points, 6.0 boards and 4.2 assists. Devin Booker also has good numbers (25.6/4.1/7.1). But the team sucked, ultimately firing our old friend Mike Budenholzer the day after the season mercifully ended. I take some solace from the fact that while I was wrong about this team, almost everyone else was too. Yet another sad fan base.

Memphis Grizzlies

Predicted Win Total: 47.5

Actual Win Total: 48

My Prediction: OVER.

In my preseason column, I said: “Of their top ten PPG scorers, only Jaron Jackson, Jr. played more than 50 games [in 2023-24]. Will a healthy season allow Memphis to win 20 more games than last year’s lost season? Probably.” Memphis had a weird season in 2024-25, firing their coach (ex-Spurs assistant Taylor Jenkins) near the end of the season and never looking like the happy, over-achieving squad that got a 2-seed just a few years back. Ja Morant is throwing fake grenades into the crowd, inviting the league to suspend him. He should try a fake bow and arrow next. But somehow, the Grizzlies wound up on the OVER, giving me a narrow win. I need all the wins I can get, as things start going south very soon.

Sacramento Kings

Predicted Win Total: 46.5

Actual Win Total: 40

My Prediction: OVER.

I said: “Of course, the Kings already had a very good offense, which is why they won 46 games last year. Will DeRozan be worth one more win? OVER.” As with the Grizzlies, the Kings went from being a feel-good story to something much less than that. Instead, this year’s version became the same old Kings, struggling to make the Play-In Tourney, and adding a new twist: trading away their best player while he just entering his prime. Of course, no one in Spurs Nation is complaining about that twist as the Spurs benefitted by acquiring De’Aaron Fox – even though it meant another loss for me here. I will take that trade.

New Orleans Pelicans

Predicted Win Total: 46.5

Actual Win Total: 21

My Prediction: UNDER

Another sad team, another team no longer a feel-good story, and another sad fan base. The only good thing? The Pelicans were so bad that my April Fool’s Day column could credibly report a trade of Wembanyama for the entire Pelicans roster. Before the season, I said: “I think this island of mis-matched toys may take a step back from last year’s 49 wins. UNDER.”. “Mis-matched toys” was accurate. A “step back” was an understatement. The Pelicans “stepped back” off a cliff into the path of an oncoming train. Yikes, the Pelicans were bad.

Golden State Warriors

Predicted Win Total: 44.5

Actual Win Total: 48

My Prediction: OVER.

My OVER prediction was based on one thing: “The Warriors still have Steph Curry, which means OVER.” If I would have known how the W’s season turned out, I would have said, “The Warriors still have Steph Curry, and will pick up Jimmy Butler”. I would have also said that the Warriors may just be the team no one wants to play. The more games Curry and the Ws win in the playoffs, the better the TV ratings will be.

Los Angeles Lakers

Predicted Win Total 43.5

Actual Win Total: 50

My Prediction: UNDER.

I missed badly on both Los Angeles teams, which gives all my friends here in Los Angeles something to chirp about. For the Lakers I said, “even with relatively healthy seasons from LeBron and AD, the Lakers won just 47 games last year and didn’t finish in the top six in the West. Would you bet on another healthy season from the Lakers’ best two players? UNDER.” It appears I asked the wrong question. The right question would have asked how the Lakers would do if they traded for Doncic, LeBron had a throw-back season, Austin Reaves became a star, and a guy who had never coached a game before (J.J. Reddick) actually became pretty good at it. That question I might have answered correctly. As opposed to my UNDER prediction for the No. 3 seed in the West.

Los Angeles Clippers

Predicted Win Total: 39.5

Actual Win Total: 50

My Prediction: UNDER

Another loss for me. I said, “The Clippers lost Paul George and got nothing back. Spurs fans were upset when Kawhi Leonard wanted out of San Antonio six years ago, but the Spurs probably are glad that Kawhi departed… In related news, Kawhi is 33 years old and in the first year of a three-year $152 million contract. Sad. UNDER.” Just as everyone was overly optimistic about the Suns, everyone (including me) was overly pessimistic about the Clippers, predicting them to finish under .500. Even though Kawhi only played 37 games, the Clippers played well throughout the season, and matched the Lakers with 50 wins. And with Kawhi looking good, the Clippers are rightfully seen as legitimate contenders. You know the “if” sentence that follows. It includes the words “Kawhi”, “stays” and “healthy”.

Houston Rockets

Predicted Win Total: 43.5

Actual Win Total: 52

My Prediction: UNDER

Joking around instead of any actual analysis, I said: “Will losing Boban to a European team doom the Rockets? Karma says UNDER.” It turns out that my joking around prediction was no better than Las Vegas, which also badly missed on this team. As did everyone else. I don’t think anyone had the Rockets winning 52 games and finishing No. 2 in the loaded Western Conference. Indeed, Vegas had the Rockets coming in 11th and missing the Play-In Tourney. Oops.

San Antonio Spurs

Predicted Win Total: 36.5

Actual Win Total: 34

My Prediction: OVER.

As a long-time Pounding the Rock writer, I am contractually obligated to predict OVER for the Spurs. (I would have done it anyway.) Absent the loss of Pop in November and Victor Wembanyama in February, I would have been right. By the way, my prediction for the 2025-26 season? OVER! I don’t care what Vegas predicts, I am going OVER.

Utah Jazz

Predicted Win Total: 29.5

Actual Win Total: 17

My Prediction: UNDER.

I said, “Hey, I just learned that Patty Mills is on the Jazz! But they falsely list him at 6’2”. I have both the Jazz and Patty as UNDER.” I was right on this, largely because (1) the Jazz don’t have good players and (2) based on number 1, the Jazz decided early on that Cooper Flagg would look very good in a Jazz jersey. Also, Patty Mills ended the season on the Mavs. He deserves to be in a better place.

Portland Trail Blazers

Predicted Win Total: 22.5

Actual Win Total: 36

My Prediction: UNDER

Along with everyone else, I missed badly on the Blazers. I said “I expect the Blazers to be tanking, hoping to win the Cooper Flagg lottery.” Instead, the Blazers became an under-the-radar success story, even rewarding their coach Chauncey Billups with a long extension. And he can ask Coach Bud what that means for his job security...

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Summary

Hey, I did better than last season’s abysmal 5–10 record. This year: 7–8, which would have made the Play-Tourney in the Eastern Conference. A low bar, I know, but that’s all I got. Next year, either I continue an upward trend (like the Thunder and Rockets) or I turn this feel-good story into a sad one (like the Kings and Pelicans). I predict the UNDER.