Jets mailbag: Pondering playoffs, ice time, beating bottom feeders

We are now less than three weeks away from the start of the NHL playoffs and the pursuit of Lord Stanley is on the minds of many hockey fans.

With the Winnipeg Jets sitting on top of the Central Division and Western Conference, it’s not surprising that our monthly mailbag was filled with questions about what could be around the corner.

From injuries, callups and lineup deployment to ideal matchups, motivation and ghosts of the past, Free Press hockey writers Ken Wiebe and Mike McIntyre are here to weigh in.

1. Who is the best 1st round playoff matchup for the Jets? Who is the worst 1st round playoff matchup for the Jets? CRAIG

WIEBE: As Jets head coach Scott Arniel said last week, this isn’t going to be a pick-your-poison situation for his team. With eight games remaining after Sunday, the Dallas Stars remain hot on the Jets trail, so a strong start will be required for the Jets to lock down the Central Division title and for them to keep an upper hand over the Washington Capitals in the chase for the Presidents’ Trophy.

Finishing second in the Central for either the Jets or Stars isn’t the end of the world and the fact remains, all three of those teams are bona fide Stanley Cup contenders, so beating one or both of those teams is likely a requirement, just to advance to the Western Conference final and remain eight wins away from the ultimate goal for all of them.

Would it be beneficial for the Jets to avoid the Colorado Avalanche in the opening round? Of course, but the St. Louis Blues are the hottest team in the NHL and wouldn’t be an easy out either. Same goes for the Minnesota Wild, who have battled adversity all season long and won’t seem to go away.

And if either the Vancouver Canucks or the Calgary Flames find a way to leapfrog their way into the second wild card, it will mean they go on a heater to end the season. So, they’ll be playoff ready regardless.

The easiest way to answer the initial question is that the best first round playoff matchup for the Jets will be the second wild card team, no matter who that team might be. The worst has to be the Avalanche, though having to stare down the demon from last spring right out of the gate would represent an incredible opportunity for a Jets team that has high hopes and will need to beat four excellent teams to reach the top of the mountain.

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2. Do you think the coach or captain could draw on their postseason history and criticism that the Jets are not built for the playoffs to inspire a sense of collective team pride for a winning run this year? RODGER

MCINTYRE: Motivation comes in many forms and there’s no question this group is well aware of the ghosts of their playoff past and the perception out there that they are doomed to fail once again.

It’s something they began talking about in training camp and I think it’s a big reason the regular season has included far more peaks than valleys, and those swoons have been rather short-lived. They haven’t allowed things to spiral out of control with the idea of getting themselves battle-ready for the big stage this spring.

Talk is ultimately cheap and actions will tell the tale, but no doubt their history has actually helped the cause, at least so far.

3. What are the Jets chances for a long playoff run if Gabe Vilardi is out until next year? COLIN

WIEBE: First and foremost, there’s no information available right now that suggests Vilardi’s upper-body injury is going to keep him out for the rest of the regular season and the playoffs. Although the timing for Vilardi was unfortunate, given how well he has played this season, a week-to-week initial assessment from Jets head coach Scott Arniel was another way of saying additional time was required to get a better idea of the timeline. That’s not to suggest the injury isn’t serious, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to be long-term either.

Vilardi was injured on his final shift against the Buffalo Sabres last Sunday. A review of the tape shows two potential areas where the injury occurred. Vilardi was checked into the boards in the offensive zone by Buffalo Sabres D-man Mattias Samuelsson, then he was dumped to the ice in front of the net by Alex Tuch — and it appeared he landed on his back during the awkward fall.

Without knowing more about the nature of the injury or the severity, it’s difficult to speculate when Vilardi could be back, but it didn’t look like a season-ender to me. Vilardi’s injury history makes it natural for fans to be concerned with him back on the shelf for the time being, but it will be surprising to me if the top-line winger isn’t back for the start of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

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4. If the Jets get bounced in round one or two and considering expectations, Chevy might want to take the big swing we had expected/hoped for. Does that mean Nikolaj Ehlers will probably be the bait alone or in a package? I hope not. As a follow up, could you try to make us understand why he hasn’t been re-signed yet. Chatter has been for a while now to keep expectations low because he probably will be traded. I just don’t get it. JOHNNY

MCINTYRE: I can’t predict how the Ehlers saga ultimately ends, but I do suspect what occurs this spring will ultimately form part of the story. A deep playoff run compared to yet another early exit would very much change the narrative and perspective from parties.

In that sense, stay tuned.

I think Ehlers has personally wanted to shelve all talk to focus on this year, and it would appear to be a good personal decision given that he’s on pace to have his best offensive campaign yet. I wouldn’t take a lack of movement to be indicative one way or another on how this plays out.

Ehlers has certainly earned the right to test the market and see what his value might be. But I also believe he enjoys being a member of the Jets and would love nothing more right now than to win a championship with his current club.

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5. Who do you see the Jets call up, if anyone, from the Manitoba Moose for the playoffs? MATT

WIEBE: Given the fact the Jets are carrying a 25-man roster these days (and with 23 healthy bodies), the need for reinforcements can likely wait until the end of the American Hockey League season, which is right around the end of the NHL season.

The taxi squad figures to include Dylan Coghlan and Elias Salomonsson on defence. Up front, you can expect Brad Lambert and Dominic Toninato to be recalled. After that, Jaret Anderson-Dolan is having a stronger second half after a tough start. Parker Ford would be near the top of the list if he wasn’t dealing with a longer-term injury. Same goes for Nikita Chibrikov if he wasn’t out for the season. Others with NHL experience, like Mason Shaw or Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, could be on the radar but those are my initial thoughts.

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6. Do you think Scott Arniel will play Ville Heinola at all to get him some ice or is he done with the Jets? MARK

MCINTYRE: At this point, Heinola would appear to be ninth on the the depth chart when everyone is healthy. He might actually be 10th, with Dylan Coghlan (currently tearing it up with the Manitoba Moose) ahead of him.

So, in a nutshell, I’d be surprised if we see much more of Heinola this year. Perhaps he gets a game or two down the stretch if the Jets can sew up the division title and some regulars are rested. Otherwise, his only way in would appear to be a string of injuries beyond the current one to Neal Pionk.

As for the future, Heinola has one more year remaining on his contract at US$800,000 before he’d be a restricted free agent next year. I don’t believe the team is actively looking to trade him, but if the right offer or package were to come along, it might ultimately be best for everyone.

Otherwise, I guess the idea will be to try again next fall to see if he can earn a regular spot in the lineup.

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7. Why do you think Morgan Barron never plays up in the Jets’ lineup? He is big, smart, fast and physical yet when injury requires someone to step in on a different line (for example, Alex Iafallo against the Capitals) it is never him. Do I like Iaffalo as a player? Yes, I do but I don’t get why it’s always him. Maybe a bit more of a “get it off my chest” kind of thing, but if you have some insight would love to hear it. KERRY

8. Watching Barron’s almost seamless move to centre from wing on the fourth line and the success he is having suggests a huge upside that Jets should nurture. With a little maturity, could the coveted second line centre be hiding in plain sight in the form of Barron? RODGER

WIEBE: This falls into a two-for-one deal and while the questions focus on different subjects, they are linked to a certain degree.

First of all, to suggest Barron never plays up in the lineup is not accurate. There was a time not long ago when Barron was a regular on a line with Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton. Now, this changed when Nino Niederreiter became a regular on that line, bumping Barron down to the fourth line with the majority of the time. There are even times in game, often coming out of a Jets’ power play, when Barron takes the occasional shift alongside Lowry and Appleton — so that eliminates the “never” portion of the question.

I understand you were probably doing it for effect and your point is well taken. The style Barron plays would be conducive to future promotions. Even with his goal-scoring down a bit from the 11 he scored last season to six through 65 games this season, I’ve said before that he has the potential to be in the range of 15 at some point down the road.

During his time with the Los Angeles Kings, Iafallo often played alongside Anze Kopitar in a top-six role and he’s been in double digits in goals in seven consecutive seasons (while scoring nine as a rookie), so the coaching staff is going with someone who has done it before over someone who may do it down the road. Iafallo has shown well in an expanded role when given the opportunity in the past and he’s off to a solid start after this latest promotion.

As it pertains to future bump-ups in the depth chart, Barron is someone who should be given strong consideration. Could that mean a future role as a 2C? That would be asking a lot at this stage of his career. But shifting Barron to the middle was a smart move by the Jets coaching staff and it’s one that should pay dividends in both the short and long term. The power forward game that he plays allows him to be effective either on the wall or down the middle.

How high Barron moves up the depth chart in the future won’t be known for some time and will be related to his continued development. I don’t see his ceiling as a fourth-line player though — and it will be interesting to see where he eventually lands.

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9. Why do the Jets have so much difficulty beating the bottom feeders? ERNIE

10. What percentage of Jets losses this year are to teams below the playoff cutoff line? It seems they do better against good teams. Am I right? If so, why does it seem they either lose or barely beat the weakest teams? RAYMOND

MCINTYRE: Here are the cold, hard facts: the Jets have played 35 games so far this year against the other 15 teams currently holding down a playoff spot (as of Saturday morning). Winnipeg’s record in that span is 23-10-2, which gives them a points percentage of .685. That’s pretty good, I’d say.

The Jets have played 38 games against the 16 teams who are currently on the outside looking in. Their record in that span is 27-9-2, which gives them a points percentage of .737. That’s really good, I’d say.

I think this is a classic example of perception not really meeting reality. Obviously a loss to a team like Buffalo last Sunday leaves a sour taste in the mouth, but the Jets do have a better record against non-playoff teams (which I’d expect to be the case, given the quality of competition).

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11. How do you see Jakob Chychrun’s extension with the Capitals forecasting a potential Pionk deal, and does this type of price tag have the Jets considering other options there? NIK

WIEBE: With the Capitals in Winnipeg on Tuesday, the organization announced Chychrun had signed an eight-year extension worth $72 million ($9 million AAV) that kicks in next season. There are similarities and differences when it comes to Chychrun and Pionk, but it’s fair to wonder if this will be held up as a comparable if Pionk gets to market on July 1 as a pending unrestricted free agent (which Chychrun would have been if he hadn’t been extended).

Let’s start with age. Chychrun turns 27 on Monday, while Pionk turns 30 during the offseason. So the age gap must be considered when looking at the term for Pionk. That’s not to say he can’t get eight years from the Jets, but if they went seven with Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck, it seems unlikely that the Jets would go with the maximum term for Pionk.

It’s also important to remember the Jets are the only team that can offer Pionk the maximum term, so on the open market he could only get seven years.

This season, Chychrun has 18 goals and 44 points compared to nine goals and 36 points for Pionk, who remains week-to-week with a lower-body injury. During their careers, Pionk has played 533 games and Chychrun is set to play his 535th game on Sunday. Chychrun has a decided edge in goals (94 to 44) but the points are similar (260 to 252 for Chychrun).

Pionk plays a more physical game despite Chychrun having an edge in size and stature. The Jets D-man also has a 22-9 edge in playoff games. Chychrun is finishing off a deal with an AAV of $4.6 million while Pionk is wrapping up a deal that has an AAV of $5.875 million.

It’s hard to envision Pionk’s next deal reaching $9 million, but with the salary cap set to rise significantly during the next three seasons, right-handed shooting blue-liners will be getting paid at a premium. So, you can count on Pionk getting a raise, even if how big that could be remains a bit unclear. Pionk has expressed his desire to stick around and I suspect both sides will work hard to find a way to keep him in the fold. When looking at the right side of the depth chart, the Jets have Dylan DeMelo and Luke Schenn under contract for next season, with Salomonsson expected to push for NHL duty.

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12. With the cap going up, what does this do to small market teams like the Jets? The only direct income would be from ticket sales so there must be other sources. So they can spend up to the increasing cap but how can it be paid for? JOHNNY

MCINTYRE: The Jets have spent to, at or near the cap in recent years, and general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has indicated he expects that to continue as long as this window of competition remains open, which I believe ties in directly with the contract extensions handed out to Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele. There’s a belief they owe it to those players and other core members to build the best possible product around them.

Is that going to be challenging with a rapidly rising cap? Certainly, especially with the state of the Canadian dollar (all players are paid in American money) and global and economic uncertainty right now.

There are other revenue streams including broadcast rights fees, expansion fees — the NHL is going to add at least two more teams eventually, maybe four — and even a form of revenue sharing between clubs.

However, this hammers home why True North has repeatedly stated it needs to firm up its season ticket base, especially in terms of corporate support, so it can continue to spend freely with the idea of one day bringing a Stanley Cup to Winnipeg.

Fortunately, attendance is up nearly 1,000 fans per game this year, no doubt aided by the team’s strong play. There’s still work to be done in that department, but the trend is going in the right direction.

 

ken.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca

X and Bluesky: @WiebesWorld

mike.mcintyre@freepress.mb.ca

X and Bluesky: @mikemcintyrewpg