CHARLOTTETOWN, P.E.I. — Recent data suggests P.E.I.’s quest to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions may have begun to stall.
Data released by the national inventory on climate change, which compiles the most comprehensive Canadian data on greenhouse gas emissions, shows P.E.I. residents and industry pumped out 1,602 kilotonnes (kt) of greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, the most recent year for which data is available.
That’s a modest decrease from the 1,633 kilotonnes the province emitted in 2021 and is also about one per cent lower than P.E.I.’s pre-pandemic level of emissions in 2019.
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P.E.I.’s legislated goal is to lower yearly emissions to 1,200 kilotonnes by 2030 and to reach “net zero” emissions by 2040.
This means that, despite millions in public funding spent on climate programs, the province’s emissions have been hovering around 1,600 kilotonnes of emissions since 2016.
The federal data shows that emissions are higher than the projections from P.E.I.’s Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action.
Navius Research
Projections produced for the province by Navius Research estimated P.E.I. produced 1,566 kilotonnes of emissions in 2022 – 36 kilotonnes lower than the comprehensive numbers produced by the national inventory.
The Navius projections suggest P.E.I.’s emissions could shrink to 1,488 kilotonnes by 2025, based on its current policies.
Transportation accounted for nearly half of the emissions produced in P.E.I., adding up to 763 kilotonnes in 2022. This represents a reduction of six per cent from the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.
Pre-pandemic levels
Emissions from air travel returned to pre-pandemic levels, accounting for 26 kilotonnes in 2022. Light-duty cars emitted 151 kilotonnes of emissions in 2022, a 17 per cent reduction from 2019.
However, consumer tastes have continued to favour light-duty trucks such as the Chevy Silverado or the Ford F-150. Emissions from these trucks increased by eight per cent since 2019, increasing overall emissions to 295 kilotonnes.
Emissions from residential home heating have dropped by 12 per cent since 2019 despite increases in the province’s population, likely owing to the province’s policy of encouraging switches to low-emission heat sources like heat pumps.
Emissions attributed to agriculture rose by nine per cent between 2019 and 2022, reaching 315 kilotonnes.
National emissions
Nationally, greenhouse gas emissions rose in 2022 to 708 megatonnes, a slight increase compared to 698 megatonnes the previous year. These emissions were, however, six per cent lower than the pre-pandemic 752 megatonnes emitted nationally in 2019.
To meet its climate goals, Canada must lower emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
After years of warnings from scientists about the risks of climate change, the World Meteorological Organization has issued a "red alert" due to a record-hot start to 2024. Last year saw a series of heatwaves, wildfires and floods in regions across Canada, including in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
Stu Neatby is a political reporter with the SaltWire Network in Prince Edward Island. He can be reached by email at stu.neatby@theguardian.pe.ca and followed on X @stu_neatby.
